0. Why I’m interested
One of my economics professors had this poster on their office door: The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it - Our World in Data…
… and I haven’t really ever stopped thinking about it.
I studied economics in school and continue to read lots of economics blogs, tweets, and research.
Economic growth is one of the most powerful forces for good in the world. But there are also lots of consequences, externalities, and tradeoffs. (Though I, for one, would much rather live now than 200 years ago).
Growth is tricky because 2% YoY growth is hardly noticeable. But exponential growth accumulates over time to massive compounding effects.
Growth is also tricky because while it’s been incredibly reliable over the long run in the last 200 years, economic progress seems incredibly fragile at times.
And, even with decades of research, we don’t really seem to fully understand economic growth.
I don’t think we really understand development at all, because if we could, we could predict it. We can predict virtually nothing. — Stephen Jennings on CWT E193
“Recommendations always welcome.” — Patrick Collison
1. Questions I want to explore
Formal models:
- Refresh on the different models of economics growth in academic economics
- How have models of growth changed over time?
- What are the biggest open questions at the front of research?
Lived experience:
- What do people in developing countries say about growth?
- How do biographies of people from the early 19th century talk about economic growth?
Technology and economic growth:
- How much did air conditioning change the economic trajectory of the Southern US?
- Where oh where is the impact of the internet in the productivity statistics?
- Can AI actually significantly accelerate economic growth? Like what specifically do people think the mechanism might be?
Talent and immigration:
- To what extent is “brain drain” a serious concern to increasing talent migration?
Meta:
- What differentiates progress and growth?
- How long can growth really continue? (Simulations…)
- What would a world with no poverty and full literacy and very low child mortality be like?
- What changes if every country is much richer?